Category: Publications

Changes in Arctic Stratification and Mixed Layer Depth Cycle: A Modeling Analysis

Hordoir, R., Skagseth, Ø., Ingvaldsen, R.B., Sandø, A.B., Löptien, U., Dietze, H., Gierisch, A.M.U., Assmann K.A., Lundesgaard,Ø., Lind, S. 2022: Changes in Arctic Stratification and Mixed Layer Depth Cycle: A Modeling Analysis. JGR Oceans. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017270

Summary: We analyzed the results of an ocean model simulation for the Arctic and North Atlantic oceans for the period 1970–2019. Our model is in line with the recent observed changes in the Arctic Ocean and allows, in contrast to the rather sparse observations, a detailed assessment of stratification changes. These changes will affect the Arctic ecosystem and are also believed to affect the large scale ocean circulation. We show that major changes in upper ocean conditions are caused by changes in the fresh water supply by sea ice and varying effect of the wind on regions that are now becoming ice-free. We also study the effect of changes in river runoff into the Arctic Ocean. Our study shows that an increase in river runoff can change the coastal circulation and results, paradoxically, in regions of higher salinity. These results point to the importance of modeling tools when it comes to a better understanding of ocean processes in a changing climate.

Link to publication. You are most welcome to contact us or the corresponding author(s) directly, if you have questions.

NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP

Bethke, I., Wang, Y., Counillon, F., Keenlyside, N., Kimmritz, M., Fransner, F., Samuelsen, A., Langehaug, H., Svendsen, L., Chiu, P.-G., Passos, L., Bentsen, M., Guo, C., Gupta, A., Tjiputra, J., Kirkevåg, A., Olivié, D., Seland, Ø., Solsvik Vågane, J., Fan, Y., Eldevik, T. 2021: NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP. Geosci Model Dev. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021 .

For an easy-to-understand overview, we recommend starting with this neat article written by the Climate Futures team, a project connected to BCPU: “New Study: Decadal Climate Forecasts From The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model” (les heller på norsk).

Summary: The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model version 1 (NorCPM1) is a new research tool for performing climate reanalyses and seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions. It combines the Norwegian Earth System Model version 1 (NorESM1) – which features interactive aerosol–cloud schemes and an isopycnic-coordinate ocean component with biogeochemistry – with anomaly assimilation of sea surface temperature (SST) and -profile observations using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF).

We describe the Earth system component and the data assimilation (DA) scheme, highlighting implementation of new forcings, bug fixes, retuning and DA innovations. Notably, NorCPM1 uses two anomaly assimilation variants to assess the impact of sea ice initialization and climatological reference period: the first (i1) uses a 1980–2010 reference climatology for computing anomalies and the DA only updates the physical ocean state; the second (i2) uses a 1950–2010 reference climatology and additionally updates the sea ice state via strongly coupled DA of ocean observations.

We assess the baseline, reanalysis and prediction performance with output contributed to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) as part of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The NorESM1 simulations exhibit a moderate historical global surface temperature evolution and tropical climate variability characteristics that compare favourably with observations. The climate biases of NorESM1 using CMIP6 external forcings are comparable to, or slightly larger than those of, the original NorESM1 CMIP5 model, with positive biases in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength and Arctic sea ice thickness, too-cold subtropical oceans and northern continents, and a too-warm North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. The biases in the assimilation experiments are mostly unchanged, except for a reduced sea ice thickness bias in i2 caused by the assimilation update of sea ice, generally confirming that the anomaly assimilation synchronizes variability without changing the climatology. The i1 and i2 reanalysis/hindcast products overall show comparable performance. The benefits of DA-assisted initialization are seen globally in the first year of the prediction over a range of variables, also in the atmosphere and over land. External forcings are the primary source of multiyear skills, while added benefit from initialization is demonstrated for the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) and its extension to the Arctic, and also for temperature over land if the forced signal is removed. Both products show limited success in constraining and predicting unforced surface ocean biogeochemistry variability. However, observational uncertainties and short temporal coverage make biogeochemistry evaluation uncertain, and potential predictability is found to be high. For physical climate prediction, i2 performs marginally better than i1 for a range of variables, especially in the SPNA and in the vicinity of sea ice, with notably improved sea level variability of the Southern Ocean. Despite similar skills, i1 and i2 feature very different drift behaviours, mainly due to their use of different climatologies in DA; i2 exhibits an anomalously strong AMOC that leads to forecast drift with unrealistic warming in the SPNA, whereas i1 exhibits a weaker AMOC that leads to unrealistic cooling. In polar regions, the reduction in climatological ice thickness in i2 causes additional forecast drift as the ice grows back. Posteriori lead-dependent drift correction removes most hindcast differences; applications should therefore benefit from combining the two products.

The results confirm that the large-scale ocean circulation exerts strong control on North Atlantic temperature variability, implying predictive potential from better synchronization of circulation variability. Future development will therefore focus on improving the representation of mean state and variability of AMOC and its initialization, in addition to upgrades of the atmospheric component. Other efforts will be directed to refining the anomaly assimilation scheme – to better separate internal and forced signals, to include land and atmosphere initialization and new observational types – and improving biogeochemistry prediction capability. Combined with other systems, NorCPM1 may already contribute to skilful multiyear climate prediction that benefits society.

Link to publication. You are most welcome to contact us or the corresponding author(s) directly, if you have questions.

Twenty-one years of phytoplankton bloom phenology in the Barents, Norwegian and North seas

Silva, E.F.F., Counillon, F., Brajard, J., Korosov, A., Pettersson, L., Samuelsen, A., Keenlyside, N. 2021: Twenty-one years of phytoplankton bloom phenology in the Barents, Norwegian and North seas. Front Mar Sci.  https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2021.746327 .

For en flott oppsummering på norsk, les denne artikkelen av vår samarbeidspartner, Climate Futures.

Summary: Phytoplankton blooms provide biomass to the marine trophic web, contribute to the carbon removal from the atmosphere and can be deadly when associated with harmful species. This points to the need to understand the phenology of the blooms in the Barents, Norwegian, and North seas. We use satellite chlorophyll-a from 2000 to 2020 to assess robust climatological and the interannual trends of spring and summer blooms onset, peak day, duration and intensity. Further, we also correlate the interannual variability of the blooms with mixed layer depth (MLD), sea surface temperature (SST), wind speed and suspended particulate matter (SPM) retrieved from models and remote sensing. The climatological spring blooms start on March 10th and end on June 19th. The climatological summer blooms begin on July 13th and end on September 17th. In the Barents Sea, years of shallower mixed layer (ML) driven by both calm waters and higher freshwaters input keeps the phytoplankton in the euphotic zone, causing the spring bloom to start earlier and reach higher biomass but end sooner due to the lack of nutrients upwelling from the deep. In the Norwegian Sea, a correlation between SST and the spring blooms is found. Here, warmer waters are correlated to earlier and stronger blooms in most regions but with later and weaker blooms in the eastern Norwegian Sea. In the North Sea, years of shallower ML reduces the phytoplankton sinking below the euphotic zone and limits the SPM increase from the bed shear stress, creating an ideal environment of stratified and clear waters to develop stronger spring blooms. Last, the summer blooms onset, peak day and duration have been rapidly delaying at a rate of 1.25-day year–1, but with inconclusive causes based on the parameters assessed in this study.

Link to publication. You are most welcome to contact us or the corresponding author(s) directly, if you have questions.

Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming Arctic

Dörr, J., Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., Madonna, E. 2021: Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming Arctic. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0149.1 .

Summary: The Arctic winter sea ice cover is in retreat overlaid by large internal variability. Changes to sea ice are driven by exchange of heat, momentum, and freshwater within and between the ocean and the atmosphere. Using a combination of observations and output from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we analyze and contrast present and future drivers of the regional winter sea ice cover. Consistent with observations and previous studies, we find that for the recent decades ocean heat transport though the Barents Sea and Bering Strait is a major source of sea ice variability in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic, respectively. Future projections show a gradually expanding footprint of Pacific and Atlantic inflows highlighting the importance of future Atlantification and Pacification of the Arctic Ocean. While the dominant hemispheric modes of winter atmospheric circulation are only weakly connected to the sea ice, we find distinct local atmospheric circulation patterns associated with present and future regional sea ice variability in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, consistent with heat and moisture transport from lower latitudes. Even if the total freshwater input from rivers is projected to increase substantially, its influence on simulated sea ice is small in the context of internal variability.

Link to publication. You are most welcome to contact us or the corresponding author(s) directly, if you have questions.

Understanding the dynamics of recent Norwegian extreme weather events and their influence on energy production

Pecnjak, Martin (2021-08-05). Understanding the dynamics of recent Norwegian extreme weather events and their influence on energy production (Master’s thesis, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway). https://bora.uib.no/bora-xmlui/handle/11250/2778409 .

Summary: The growing frequency and severity of extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere has prompted a lot of research being done on their origin and physical mechanisms. Both simplified and complex approaches have been introduced in defining and understanding these events, where they look into high-amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their quasi-resonant amplification. However, different approaches exist to investigating extreme events and these were just a motivation for this thesis. Since the resonance method is suit- able mostly for summer events and the events discussed in this thesis have happened in all seasons, a different approach was needed. The events in question were a winter drought, two summer and autumn floods, a winter snowfall and a spring/summer heatwave in the areas of south and southwestern Norway. In order to detect certain features which would help solve this issue, we look into anomalies of different meteorological variables such as geopoten- tial height, surface temperature, precipitation and snowfall rate and zonal and meridional winds. Deep and thorough statistical and dynamical analyses are applied to define the out- comes and the physical origins which would help us obtain a clear picture on the whole case. The finite-amplitude local wave activity (LWA) diagnostic, as a measure of the meandering of the jet stream, has helped to give a clear picture along with the large-scale circulation. This method can be used as a proxy for the strength of the eddy-driven jet and the storm track. It has proven to be the key factor in defining what has exactly caused the events in ques- tion. The results and findings have shown that the LWA is a conclusive tool in determining whether an extreme event was related to a blocking pattern or not, while the LWA budget equation components have shed light on the so far poorly understood dynamical aspects which led to the events. The zonal LWA flux has proven to be a good predictor of blocking with its onset in the early stages of the events, similar to the traffic jam concept introduced by (Nakamura and Huang, 2018). The jet stream has a capacity for the LWA flux similar to how a highway has a capacity for the number of vehicles on it. If the capacity is exceeded, blocking occurs, and this is readily shown in the results and findings of this work. As for the budget equation components, the zonal LWA flux convergence has proven to be the key in maintaining the increase of the LWA as well as also having an early onset in each blocking event in agreement with the LWA flux. On the other hand, the residual in the LWA budget, which represents the non-conservative small-scale processes (diabatic sources and sinks of LWA), dampens the LWA. The LWA method has also proven to be useful in all seasons. The motivation for the thesis also came from the influence of the events on the meteorological variables related to the Norwegian energy production. The results show us clues into possible ways of improving forecasting of such events and minimizing their harmful impacts. They also show possibilities in improving energy management, infrastructure, allocation of resources and preparedness of the society for damages and hazards caused by the events. This was not fully investigated in this thesis and is the next step in the research of this topic.

Link to publication. You are most welcome to contact us or the corresponding author(s) directly, if you have questions.

Variable Nordic Seas Inflow Linked to Shifts in North Atlantic Circulation

Asbjørnsen, H., Johnson, H.L., Årthun, M. 2021: Variable Nordic Seas Inflow Linked to Shifts in North Atlantic Circulation. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0917.1 .

Summary: The inflow across the Iceland-Scotland Ridge determines the amount of heat supplied to the Nordic Seas from the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA). Consequently, variable inflow properties and volume transport at the ridge influence marine ecosystems and sea ice extent further north. Here, we identify the upstream pathways of the Nordic Seas inflow, and assess the mechanisms responsible for interannual inflow variability. Using an eddy-permitting ocean model hindcast and a Lagrangian analysis tool, numerical particles are released at the ridge during 1986-2015 and tracked backward in time. We find an inflow that is well-mixed in terms of its properties, where 64% comes from the subtropics and 26% has a subpolar or Arctic origin. The local instantaneous response to the NAO is important for the overall transport of both subtropical and Arctic-origin waters at the ridge. In the years before reaching the ridge, the subtropical particles are influenced by atmospheric circulation anomalies in the gyre boundary region and over the SPNA, forcing shifts in the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and the subpolar front. An equatorward shifted NAC and westward shifted subpolar front correspond to a warmer, more saline inflow. Atmospheric circulation anomalies over the SPNA also affect the amount of Arctic-origin water re-routed from the Labrador Current toward the Nordic Seas. A high transport of Arctic-origin water is associated with a colder, fresher inflow across the Iceland-Scotland Ridge. The results thus demonstrate the importance of gyre dynamics and wind forcing in affecting the Nordic Seas inflow properties and volume transport.

Link to publication. You are most welcome to contact us or the corresponding author(s) directly, if you have questions.

Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century

Svendsen, L., Keenlyside, N., Muilwijk, M., Bethke, I., Omrani, N.-E., Gao, Y. 2021: Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century. Climate Dynamics. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9 .

Summary: Instrumental records suggest multidecadal variability in Arctic surface temperature throughout the twentieth century. This variability is caused by a combination of external forcing and internal variability, but their relative importance remains unclear. Since the early twentieth century Arctic warming has been linked to decadal variability in the Pacific, we hypothesize that the Pacific could impact decadal temperature trends in the Arctic throughout the twentieth century. To investigate this, we compare two ensembles of historical all-forcing twentieth century simulations with the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM): (1) a fully coupled ensemble and (2) an ensemble where momentum flux anomalies from reanalysis are prescribed over the Indo-Pacific Ocean to constrain Pacific sea surface temperature variability. We find that the combined effect of tropical and extratropical Pacific decadal variability can explain up to ~ 50% of the observed decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic. The Pacific-Arctic connection involves both lower tropospheric horizontal advection and subsidence-induced adiabatic heating, mediated by Aleutian Low variations. This link is detected across the twentieth century, but the response in Arctic surface temperature is moderated by external forcing and surface feedbacks. Our results also indicate that increased ocean heat transport from the Atlantic to the Arctic could have compensated for the impact of a cooling Pacific at the turn of the twenty-first century. These results have implications for understanding the present Arctic warming and future climate variations.

Link to publication. You are most welcome to contact us or the corresponding author(s) directly, if you have questions.

Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance

Koul, V., Sguotti, C., Årthun, M., Brune, S., Düsterhus, Bogstad, B., Ottersen, G., Baehr, J., Schrum, C. 2021: Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance. Nature Communications Earth & Environment. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00207-6 .

Summary: Reliable information about the future state of the ocean and fish stocks is necessary for informed decision-making by fisheries scientists, managers and the industry. However, regional ocean climate and fish stock predictions for the next few years, and up to 10 years, have until now had low forecast skill. In this article, the authors provide skilful forecasts of the biomass of cod stocks in the North and Barents Seas 10 years in advance. These point to a continuation of unfavorable oceanic conditions for the North Sea cod in the coming years, which would inhibit its recovery at present fishing levels, and a decrease in Northeast Arctic cod stock compared to the recent high levels.

Link to publication. You are most welcome to contact us or the corresponding author(s) directly, if you have questions.

Barents Sea plankton production and controlling factors in a fluctuating climate

Sandø, A.B., Mousing, E.A., Budgell, W.P., Hjøllo, S.S., Skogen, M.D., Ådlandsvik, B. 2021: Barents Sea plankton production and controlling factors in a fluctuating climate. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0149.1 .

Summary: The Barents Sea and its marine ecosystem is exposed to many different processes related to the seasonal light variability, formation and melting of sea-ice, wind-induced mixing, and exchange of heat and nutrients with neighbouring ocean regions. A global model for the RCP4.5 scenario was downscaled, evaluated, and combined with a biophysical model to study how future variability and trends in temperature, sea-ice concentration, light, and wind-induced mixing potentially affect the lower trophic levels in the Barents Sea marine ecosystem. During the integration period (2010–2070), only a modest change in climate variables and biological production was found, compared to the inter-annual and decadal variability. The most prominent change was projected for the mid-2040s with a sudden decrease in biological production, largely controlled by covarying changes in heat inflow, wind, and sea-ice extent. The northernmost parts exhibited increased access to light during the productive season due to decreased sea-ice extent, leading to increased primary and secondary production in periods of low sea-ice concentrations. In the southern parts, variable access to nutrients as a function of wind-induced mixing and mixed layer depth were found to be the most dominating factors controlling variability in primary and secondary production.

Link to publication. You are most welcome to contact us or the corresponding author(s) directly, if you have questions.

Future Abrupt Changes in Winter Barents Sea Ice Area

Rieke, Ole (2021-06-01). Future Abrupt Changes in Winter Barents Sea Ice Area (Master’s thesis, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway). https://bora.uib.no/bora-xmlui/handle/11250/2762637 .

Summary: The Barents Sea is an area of strong anthropogenic winter sea ice loss that is superimposed by pronounced internal variability on interannual to multidecadal timescales. This internal variability represents a source of large uncertainty in future climate projections in the Barents Sea. This study aims to investigate internal variability of Barents Sea ice area and its driving mechanisms in future climate simulations of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble under the RCP8.5 climate scenario. We find that although sea ice area is projected to decline towards ice-free conditions, internal variability remains strong until late in the 21st century. A substantial part of this variability is expressed as events of abrupt change in the sea ice cover. These internally-driven events with a duration of 5-9 years can mask or enhance the anthropogenically-forced sea ice trend and lead to substantial ice growth or ice loss. Abrupt sea ice trends are a common feature of the Barents Sea in the future until the region becomes close to ice-free. Interannual variability in general, and in form of these sub-decadal events specifically, is forced by a combination of ocean heat transport, meridional winds and ice import, with ocean heat transport as the most dominant contributor. Our analysis shows that the influence of these mechanisms remains largely unchanged throughout the simulation. Investigation of a simulation from the same model where global warming is limited to 2°C shows that both mean and variability of sea ice area in the Barents Sea can be sustained at a substantial level in the future, and that abrupt changes can continue to occur frequently and produce sea ice cover of similar extent to present day climate. This highlights that future emissions play an essential role in the further decline of the Barents Sea winter sea ice cover. The results of this thesis contribute to a better understanding of Arctic sea ice variability on different time scales, and especially on the role of internal variability which is important in order to predict future sea ice changes under anthropogenic warming.

Link to publication. You are most welcome to contact us or the corresponding author(s) directly, if you have questions.