Seasonal forecast

About

The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model produces a new seasonal forecast once every month. The latest forecast was issued on 1st of May 2024.

The forecast composes of 60 climate simulations that span the likely range of seasonal outcomes. The simulations are started at the beginning of the first forecast month and integrated over a minimum of three months. Forecast anomalies are calculated relative to the 1991–2020 climatology.

Our system uses advanced data assimilation to adjust the start conditions to match today’s observed ocean state in order to produce the best possible forecast.

Temperature

Plot below shows estimated probability that this month will be warmer that normal, relative to the 1993–2016.

Estimated probability that May 2024 will be warmer that normal, relative to the 1993–2020

Arctic sea ice area

Plot below shows forecasted Arctic sea ice area for the next 6 months and observed daily Arctic sea ice area for the last 6 months. The forecasted sea ice area is calibrated by computing the climatological differences between observations and simulations, relative to the 2003-2022. The daily observed Arctic sea ice area is taken from NERSC Arctic Sea Ice Observing System (https://iceobs.nersc.no).

Arctic sea ice forecast

El Niño

Plot below shows NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (degC). The NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is defined as the difference between the area averaged sea surface temperature from the 170°W-120°W and 5°S-5°N and the climatological reference value over same area between 1993-2016. El Nino or La Nina events are defined when the NINO3.4 SST anomalies exceed +/- 0.5°C for a period of six months.

ENSO forecast

Multi-model prediction

Multi-model seasonal forecasts provided by Copernicus Climate Change Service https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts