Category: Additional selected publications

Latitudinally distinct stocks of Atlantic cod face fundamentally different biophysical challenges under on-going climate change

Kjesbu, O.S., Alix, M., Sandø, A.B., Strand, E., Wright, P.J., Johns, D.G., Thorsen, A., Marshall, C.T., Bakkeplass, K.G., Vikebø, F.B., Myksvoll, M.S., Ottersen, G., Allan, B.J.M., Fossheim, M., Stiansen, J.E., Huse, G., Sundby, S. 2023: Latitudinally distinct stocks of Atlantic cod face fundamentally different biophysical challenges under on-going climate change. Fish and Fisheries. https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12728

Summary: Observed and future winter Arctic sea ice loss is strongest in the Barents Sea. However, the anthropogenic signal of the sea ice decline is superimposed by pronounced internal variability that represents a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. A notable manifestation of internal variability is rapid ice change events (RICEs) that greatly exceed the anthropogenic trend. These RICEs are associated with large displacements of the sea ice edge which could potentially have both local and remote impacts on the climate system. In this study we present the first investigation of the frequency and drivers of RICEs in the future Barents Sea, using multi-member ensemble simulations from CMIP5 and CMIP6. A majority of RICEs are triggered by trends in ocean heat transport or surface heat fluxes. Ice loss events are associated with increasing trends in ocean heat transport and decreasing trends in surface heat loss. RICEs are a common feature of the future Barents Sea until the region becomes close to ice-free. As their evolution over time is closely tied to the average sea ice conditions, rapid ice changes in the Barents Sea may serve as a precursor for future changes in adjacent seas.

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Multidisciplinary perspectives on living marine resources in the Arctic

Kvamsdal, S.F., Dankel, D., Ekerhovd, N.-A., Hoel, A.H., Renner, A., Sandø, A.B., Steinshamn, S.I. 2022: Multidisciplinary perspectives on living marine resources in the Arctic. Polar Research. https://doi.org/10.33265/polar.v41.7766

Summary: Many areas in the Arctic are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. We observe large-scale effects on physical, biological, economic and social parameters, including ice cover, species distributions, economic activity and regional governance frameworks. Arctic living marine resources are affected in various ways. A holistic understanding of these effects requires a multidisciplinary enterprise. We synthesize relevant research, from oceanography and ecology, via economics, to political science and international law. We find that multidisciplinary research can enhance our understanding and promote new questions and issues relating to impacts and outcomes of climate change in the Arctic. Such issues include recent insights on changing spawning migrations of the North-east Arctic cod stock that necessitates revisions of socioeconomic estimates of ecosystem wealth in the Barents Sea, better integrated prediction systems that require increased cooperation between experts on climate prediction and ecosystem modelling, and institutional complexities of Arctic governance that require enhanced coordination.

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Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change

Ogawa, F., N. Keenlyside, Y. Gao, T. Koenigk, S. Yang, L. Suo, T. Wang, G. Gastineau, T. Nakamura, N. Cheung Ho, N. E. Omrani, J. Ukita, and V. Semenov, 2018: Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 3255-3263.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076502

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