Check out this nice article by Dr. Ellen Viste at the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, on the evaluation of sea ice models and how far we are to being able to provide reliable, near-term sea-ice predictions:
Read the article: Predicting Arctic sea ice.
In it, we hear from Tarkan Bilge, our BCPU data manager, and his recent paper on sea ice thickness forecasts to support Arctic marine transport, together with other collaborating scientists at our partner, NERSC, among others.
On January 31st 2022, the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research received Espen Barth Eide, our minister for Climate and the Environment, for a visit. On this occasion, Dr. Helene Langehaug gave a talk about the role of the ocean in improving climate predictions, which is a crucial aspect the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit’s research work, towards improving predictions from seasons to several years ahead.
Find out more about our research areas and results, or just get in touch with our team.
The proceedings of our “Multi-annual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic-Arctic Sector” workshop, 20-22nd September 2021, jointly organized by the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit, Blue-Action, ROADMAP and CLIVAR, are now available.
Check this page for links and resources: Workshop Multi-annual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic-Arctic Sector
Ocean connections from the Arctic across the globe. With Prof. Noel Keenlyside, University of Bergen and the Bjerknes Centre. 04:00 PM – 05:00 PM GMT (17.00-18.00 UTC+1)
This workshop will explore the importance of the ocean in the global and north west European climate, the need to ensure we are measuring the strength of ocean currents and the ocean’s properties, and how this information can be incorporated into climate models, climate services and decision-making at national and international levels.
Speakers:
Organizer: Scottish Government with the Danish Meteorological Institute, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, UiT the Arctic University of Norway, University of Edinburgh, Scottish Association for Marine Science
No accreditation to COP26? Don’t worry. All events will be streamed by our media partner, We Don’t Have Time. Follow this event live on their COP26 streaming hub:
The June 9th MASTS webinar is now available on their YouTube channel for catch-up and sharing with colleagues.
“Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential in the Northern North Atlantic”:
Translated from the Norwegian press release at the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Tor Eldevik leads EASAC report, “A sea of change: Europe’s future in the Atlantic realm”.
In the report an international panel of experts goes through the changes seen until now in the Atlantic Ocean, and what we can expect of climate change. But there is also a potential in being the closest neighbour to our western ocean.
The report is published by EASAC, the European science academy advisory council. The panel of experts is led by Tor Eldevik, Professor at the University of Bergen and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, and Deputy Leader in the BCPU.
The report shows how fluctuations and trends in the Atlantic Ocean affects the climate in Europe and both the environment and resources in the ocean and on land.
“The report is very clear about future climatic risks, but equally focuses on the future benefits we can harvest from better understanding of the relations between the state of the Atlantic and climatic conditions over Europe that affects everything from the supply of renewable energy to fisheries,” says Tor Eldevik.
He emphasises how this knowledge can be used far better than it is now. Climate predictions developed today have the potential to predict cod movements between years, including movements out of Norwegian fisheries sectors.
To power companies the knowledge of how westerlies in the Atlantic Ocean (NAO index) affect Norwegian hydro power production can also be useful.
Tor Eldevik points out how future changes in the ocean are connected to how successful we are at mitigating global warming.
“If we succeed in keeping the average warming to 1.5°C, then Antarctica may continue melting at current rates; but overshooting the 2 °C Paris Agreement target towards 3°C may lead to Antarctic melt alone add 0.5 cm a year by 2100,” he says.
Sea level rise have regional differences, but to the many million people living by the North Sea Basin, accounting for a meter rise in sea level.
Cities along the coast of the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark and Great Britain will be affected greatly.
Side event at the All Atlantic Conference 2021, where climate forecasting on a broad level was discussed. BCPU has contributing members in the EU Horizon 2020 projects TRIATLAS and Blue Action, who were organising the event with projects AtlantECO and Mission Atlantic.
Watch the presentations and following discussion on Youtube:
Hver dag i desember la Bjerknessenteret ut en video med en av senterets klimaforskere.
Helene Langehaug er forsker ved Bjerknessenteret og Nansensenteret for miljø- og fjernmåling, og jobber blant annet i Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit. Hun er en av dem på Bjerknessenteret som lenge har jobbet med klimavarsling. For å kunne gjøre det, er havet ekstra viktig. Det er havet som er klimaets hukommelse, og som legger mye av grunnlaget for å se lengre frem enn det værvarslingen for øyeblikket kan gjøre.
Værfenomenet El Niño forbinder mange med intens varme, men nå er dens kaldere lillesøster La Niña her. Hva betyr det? Vår forsker og førsteamanuensis, Dr. Lea Svendsen, skriver om dette hos Enegi og Klima: Hva gjør La Niña med været?.
(Most are all quite familiar with the El Niño phenomenon and its link with periods of intense heat. But now, El Niño’s colder little sister is here. What does this mean for the weather? Our researcher, Dr. Lea Svendsen, writes about this in her recent article in the Norwegian popular science journal Energi og Klima (link above. Article in Norwegian).
Scientists from the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit, affiliated with the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, and the University of Bergen, contributed to a recent publication in Nature. The results indicate that it is possible to predict how the atmospheric circulation above the North Atlantic will evolve during the next decade. This is crucial for better predicting the winters in Europe and Eastern North America.
Investigating the climate of the past
In order to look forward in time, looking at the past is helpful. This is true in many cases, and the researchers behind this study led by the UK Met Office made use of this principle. They used climate models for investigating how accurately climate can be predicted on a decadal scale over the past sixty years.
Sea level pressure above the North Atlantic influences Norwegian winters
The main pattern of changes in sea level pressure above the North Atlantic, called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), influences the wind and storms over the North Atlantic, which in turn influences the winter weather in Europe and Eastern North America. Two extremes are possible for winters in these regions: stormy, warm, and wet, or calm, cold, and dry. Which extreme the winter weather will tend towards is now shown to be very predictable on a decadal scale, according to the new study.
The researchers investigated the North Atlantic Oscillation and its influence by producing retrospective forecasts of the past climate (called hindcasts) and comparing them to observations made in the past. That way they quantified how accurate the model predictions are.
One of the most important predictions for Europe and especially Norway is the amount of rainfall. The comparison between hindcasts produced by models (Figure f, red line) and the observation (Figure f, black line) shows that the rainfall over Northern Europe can be predicted with high certainty. The model results match the previous observations nicely.
Contribution from the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit
Many hindcasts were produced by different research groups worldwide. The different climate models from these groups are part of t experiments performed for the last and upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. Bergen researchers involved in the study are the following: Noel Keenlyside (UiB/NERSC), François Counillon (NERSC), Ingo Bethke (UiB), and Yiguo Wang (NERSC). The four are part of the Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit at the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research. They used their climate model, the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM), which is part of CMIP6, to contribute to this study.
Climate models need to be improved
Apart from the high predictability of the North Atlantic climate indicated by the hindcasts, the study also shows that current climate models are underestimating this exact fact (Figure e). The researchers identified this deficiency and show that climate models need to be and can be adjusted (Figure f) to better predict the behaviour of the pressure above the North Atlantic and in turn the future winter conditions in Europe and Eastern North America.
To sum it up, confidently predicting the winters of the next years for Norway is now a reality, but climate models need to be improved.
Significance of this study: Climate can now be better predicted on short time scales
Noel Keenlyside, leader of the BCPU, commented “This is a major breakthrough for climate research and for the development of climate services in our region. Now we have solid evidence that we can provide to our stakeholders, like BKK and Agder Energi, that we can really say something useful about how the coming winters will be. It will also lead to improved models for providing better long-term projections of climate change.
The newly established Centre for Research-Based Innovation (SFI) called Climate Futures led by NORCE, with the Bjerknes Centre and Nansen Center as partners, among others, will benefit from this work in the future. The Centre’s objective is to improve climate prediction on short time scales of days to decades, and to improve the management of climate risks. By improving the predictability of Norwegian winters on a decadal scale, as indicated by this recent study, decadal climate prediction will become better and better. Erik Kolstad with NORCE and Bjerknes Centre leads this project:
“These results show that the models now can predict the climate in a useful way for planning in a number of sectors, like renewable energy, agriculture, and finance/insurance. With predictions like these both the business world and the public sector will be better prepared for extreme weather events and potentially gain more from periods of favorable weather and climate.”
Tarjei Breiteig (Head of Hydroglogy and Meterology at Agder Energi AS) represents one of the stakeholders this study directly impacts.
“This study shows that there is stilled untapped potential in saying something about possible weather and climate the next decade. To save hydropower in years of little demand, and have stored hydropower in years where demand will be high, it is essential for us to have sufficient information on what fluctuations to be expected in weather and climate the next decade. The climate research groups in Bergen show that they take this effort seriously, and that they are ahead when it comes to analyse and use climate models in the real world.”