Dörr, J., Årthun, M., Docquier, D., Li, C., Eldevik, T. 2024: Causal links between sea-ice variability in the Barents-Kara Seas and oceanic and atmospheric drivers. Geophysical Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108195

Summary: The sea ice in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) is melting due to Arctic warming, but this is overlaid by large natural variability. This variability is caused by variations in the ocean and the atmosphere, but it is not clear which is more important in which parts of the region. We use a relatively new method that allows us to quantify cause-effect relationships between sea ice and atmospheric and oceanic drivers. We find that in the north of the BKS, the atmosphere has the biggest impact, in the central and northeastern parts, it is the heat from the ocean, and in the south, it is the local sea temperature. We also find that wind patterns over the Nordic Seas affect how much oceanic heat comes into the Barents Sea, and that, in turn, affects the sea ice. Looking ahead, as the ice is expected to melt more in the future, the atmosphere is likely to become more important in driving sea ice variability in the BKS. This study helps us better understand how the ocean and atmosphere work together to influence the yearly changes in sea ice in this region.

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