Jacob Dörr (2024-03-07): Present and future drivers of Arctic sea ice variability. PhD thesis, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway. https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3124162

Summary: The long-term decline of the Arctic sea-ice cover is overlaid by substantial interannual to decadal internal variability. This variability is a major source of uncertainty in projections over the next decades, including the timing of a seasonally ice-free Arctic. Understanding the mechanisms of internal variability and how they modify the evolution of the sea-ice cover will enable better predictions, and help to constrain future projections of the sea-ice cover. As the Arctic becomes ice-free in summer, future sea-ice loss and variability will be largest in winter. Winter sea-ice variability is currently strongest in the Barents Sea, but as the ice edge retreats, more central regions of the Arctic Ocean will see increased sea-ice variability, where the mechanisms and drivers might be different. This thesis advances our understanding of the present and future atmospheric and oceanic drivers of winter sea-ice variability, and how internal variability has modified the observed changes in the summer and winter sea-ice cover.

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