Helene Langehaug

Helene Langehaug

My main task is to test our prediction model (the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model): to which extent is the model able to predict temperature changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Norwegian Sea some years and up to a decade ahead? To test this, I analyse predictions for the past (for instance for the period 1970-2000), as these can be compared with actual observations of the past. It is of great interest also to test how well our model performs in contrast to other prediction models from other research institutes around the globe.

What are you most excited about with this project?
I’m very excited to see in the long run how far can we reach with these prediction models. With better models, more observations, and better understanding of the natural processes taking place, the aim is to improve the predictive skills of the models. Will we be able to predict the ocean temperature several years ahead in the Norwegian Sea and also climate over land (northern Europe, Scandinavia)?

What do you see as your biggest challenge for now?
There are promising results in the ocean for the prediction models: several models can predict the upper ocean temperature several years ahead in the North Atlantic Ocean. However, it is uncertain how much of this skill is transferred to ocean regions further north, such as the Norwegian Sea and the Arctic Ocean. Observational studies show that there are possibilities to predict temperature changes in this region, but models have challenges in representing natural processes in a realistic way. An even larger challenge is how predictive skill over land can be improved on time scales ranging from a year and up to a decade.

Related projects and committees
EU Blue-Action