Bjerknes CPU involvement in EU research projects

*Last updated: Feb. 2026*

Ongoing EU projects

Project Grant ID Period Description
C3S2_375 Development of C3S Decadal Prediction Service N/A 2025-2028 The C3S2_375 contract with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts aims to develop the first operational Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) for decadal climate prediction. The novel service will issue operational-quality decadal forecasts produced with five state-of-the-art prediction systems, one of them being the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) developed and operated at BCPU. The upgraded NorCPM2 developed in C3S2_375 will also contribute simulations to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (CMIP7 DCPP) that provides input to the next Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) report.
SeaClim European SEAs CLIMate impact prediction through regional models 101180125 2025-2028 Climate change is causing shifts in marine environments, impacting ecosystems and human activities. Rising temperatures and changing ocean conditions threaten fish populations and coastal communities. Decision-makers need accurate information to predict these changes and their effects on the ocean. The EU-funded SEACLIM project provides detailed predictions of decadal-to-multidecadal changes in marine environments. Using advanced regional ocean models from the Copernicus Marine Service, the project will assess future changes in ocean circulation, waves, sea ice, and biogeochemistry. By focusing on the northeastern Atlantic, North Sea, and Arctic Ocean, SEACLIM will develop indicators to assess the health of these marine ecosystems. Its findings will support informed decision-making and will pave the way for a new service line in the Copernicus Marine Service.
CST-Tuna Combined Spatial-Temporal Models and Decadal Climate Predictions for Tuna Fisheries 101153695 2025-2026 Tuna, which constitutes 10 % of global marine catches and sustains numerous jobs, faces challenges due to overfishing and climate change. The MSCA-funded CST-TUNA project will address these by using Bayesian spatial models, particularly integrated nested Laplace approximation, or INLA. It will predict the dynamics of tuna catch and prices while accounting for environmental factors. The project will also incorporate forecasts from the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model to deliver accurate predictions regarding tuna catch and price fluctuations over the next decade. Additionally, it will develop a web application to provide scientific insights. These results will advance our comprehension of tuna fisheries and climate vulnerabilities, bolster sustainability efforts, empower coastal communities and align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
Prey4PDV New Paleo REanalYsis FOR improved understanding of Pacific Decadal Variability 101149188 2024-2026 The Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) involves fluctuations in sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean over decadal to multi-decadal timescales. It plays a significant role in regional climate events, such as floods and bushfires, and either amplifies or mitigates human-induced global warming. However, our understanding of it is hampered by a lack of long-term data, particularly in underrepresented sub-regions, which affects our confidence in climate projections, especially regionally. Supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (MSCA) programme, the Prey4PDV project will use paleoclimate proxies and models to retrieve past climate changes. The project will provide the first-ever paleoclimate reanalysis using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model and investigate the critical drivers of multi-decadal variability in the Pacific.
EcoCLimEx Ecological repercussions of future changes of marine climate extremes at the eastern boundary of the South Atlantic 101203635 2026-2028
This MSCA postdoctoral project focuses on reducing uncertainties in future projections of Benguela Niño/Niña events–extreme warm and cold events that occur in the southeastern Atlantic every few years. These events have major impacts on climate, marine ecosystems, and fisheries in the region. The work involves analysis of model simulations and performing sensitivity experiments, and will facilitate the quantification of future changes in economically relevant fish stocks in this region.
Impetus4Change IMPROVING NEAR-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTIONS FOR SOCIETAL TRANSFORMATION 101081555 2022-2026 What will the climate in your country or region be like 5 or 10 years from now? Amidst climate change, this is more than a question for academic discussion. Climate predictions can help increase resilience against drought, sea level rise, superstorms and other extreme weather events. In this context, the EU-funded Impetus4Change project aims to improve the quality, accessibility and usability of near-term climate information and services at local to regional scales. It will also support end-user adaptation planning and action. Overall, the project will improve understanding and flow of climate information through knowledge networks. Its second goal is to deliver seasonal to decadal predictions of improved quality. The project will also improve assessments of hazards.

Completed EU projects

Project Grant ID Period Description
NextGEMS Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems 101003470 2021-2025 A changing climate means a greater understanding is needed of the risk posed by global warming to society and ecosystems. The EU-funded NextGEMS project will address this challenge by developing and applying a new generation of global coupled storm-resolving Earth system models (SR-ESMs) for use in the ocean or atmosphere. SR-ESMs feature a fine grid of 3 km to give a more detailed picture of atmospheric and oceanic circulation systems, including their coupling to Earth-system processes such as the carbon, nutrients, water, and atmospheric particulate (aerosol) cycles. Consortium members will develop two prototypes SR-ESMs capable of generating 30-year projections of future climate change and maintaining Europe’s position at the forefront of Earth-system modelling.
TRIATLAS Tropical and South Atlantic climate-based marine ecosystem predictions for sustainable management 817578 2019-2023 Human activities such as intense fishing and coastal development are altering the Atlantic marine ecosystems around the South and Tropical Atlantic. The EU-funded TRIATLAS project aims to study the current situation of the Atlantic Ocean’s marine ecosystem and predict future changes.
TOSCP Towards Operational Supermodel Climate Prediction 101101037 2023-2024 The TOSCP will proof-of-concept a radically new approach to climate prediction based on supermodelling. The TOSCP will reconfigure a supermodel developed in the STERCP project for climate prediction.
STERCP Synchronisation to enhance reliability of climate predictions 648982 2015-2021 The STERCP aims to investigate the potential of an innovative technique to reduce model systematic error, and hence to improve climate prediction skill and reduce uncertainties in future climate projections.