Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit

SeaClim: Grant ID 101180125

The Horizon-Europe SeaClim project aims to provide refined information that is key to climate policy and decision making with respect to future decadal-to-multidecadal changes of the marine environment and related impacts in European and Arctic waters. UiB will perform retrospective and real-time climate predictions with the global Norwegian Earth System Model, initialized using state-of-the-art data assimilation schemes developed at the Bjerknes Centre. Our project partners will utilize the global output to drive regional models that produce multi-year outlooks for the physical ocean and marine ecosystem at local scales, which will be disseminated to end-users by the Copernicus Climate Change Service. SeaClim is expected to provide a new climate service, serve as a proof-of-concept and produce scientific innovations relevant for society. The project has 13 partners, a total budget of 4.5 mill EURO and is funded through the HORIZON-CL6-2024-CLIMATE-01 call “Land, oceans and water for climate action” during 2025-2028.

Development of C3S Decadal Prediction Service (C3S2_375)

The C3S2_375 contract with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts aims to develop the first operational Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) for decadal climate prediction. The novel service will issue operational-quality decadal forecasts produced with five state-of-the-art prediction systems, one of them being the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) developed and operated at BCPU. The upgraded NorCPM2 developed in C3S2_375 will also contribute simulations to the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (CMIP7 DCPP) that provides input to the next Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) report.

CST-Tuna: Grant ID 101153695

The MSCA-funded CST-Tuna project aims at developing new approaches for tuna catch predictions. Tuna, which constitutes 10 % of global marine catches and sustains numerous jobs, faces challenges due to overfishing and climate change. The project will address these by using Bayesian spatial models, particularly integrated nested Laplace approximation, or INLA. It will predict the dynamics of tuna catch and prices while accounting for environmental factors. The project will also incorporate forecasts from the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model to deliver accurate predictions regarding tuna catch and price fluctuations over the next decade. Additionally, it will develop a web application to provide scientific insights. These results will advance our comprehension of tuna fisheries and climate vulnerabilities, bolster sustainability efforts, empower coastal communities and align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Prey4PDV: Grant ID 101149188

The MSCA-funded Prey4PDV project aims at constructing a paleoclimate reanalysis for the specific purpose of studying past Pacific Decadal Variability. The Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV) involves fluctuations in sea surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean over decadal to multi-decadal timescales. It plays a significant role in regional climate events, such as floods and bushfires, and either amplifies or mitigates human-induced global warming. However, our understanding of it is hampered by a lack of long-term data, particularly in underrepresented sub-regions, which affects our confidence in climate projections, especially regionally. The project will use paleoclimate proxies and models to retrieve past climate changes. It will provide the first-ever paleoclimate reanalysis using a state-of-the-art Earth System Model and investigate the critical drivers of multi-decadal variability in the Pacific.