Plot below shows estimated probability that this month will be warmer that normal, relative to the 1993–2016.

Plot below shows forecasted Arctic sea ice area for the next 6 months and observed daily Arctic sea ice area for the last 6 months. The forecasted sea ice area is calibrated by computing the climatological differences between observations and simulations, relative to the 2003-2022. The daily observed Arctic sea ice area is taken from NERSC Arctic Sea Ice Observing System (https://iceobs.nersc.no).

Plot below shows NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (degC). The NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is defined as the difference between the area averaged sea surface temperature from the 170°W-120°W and 5°S-5°N and the climatological reference value over same area between 1993-2016. El Nino or La Nina events are defined when the NINO3.4 SST anomalies exceed +/- 0.5°C for a period of six months.